Microvision Q3 Recap: InvestorPlace Readers Speak After A Bumpy Quarter
As avid InvestorPlace readers know, I spent a lot of time covering the lidar space as part of my Behind the Wall Series. As such, Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS) – a key player in the lidar world – played a big part in my conversations about, and lidar stock analyzes.
Source: temp-64GTX / Shutterstock.com
So when the lidar upstart recently released third quarter results, I shared my honest take about the company and its prospects. Some of our readers responded with their own vision for the future of the business.
As always, I’m grateful to our readers, whose thoughtful comments make the conversation richer. Throughout, I’ll try to expand on the ongoing conversation about MVIS stock.
A look at the strong feelings about MVIS Stock
Investor feedback largely focused on two key points.
First, for MVIS long positions, the post-Q3 liquidation was unwarranted. After all, automakers are still in the early stages of selection. lidar technology Suppliers. Microvision has plenty of time to take a share of this market.
Second, there is a lot of consternation about Microvision’s main lidar competitor: Luminar Technologies (NASDAQ:LAZR). Many observers rebuked the Luminar’s large iris sensor form factor, seeing it as unsightly – especially for luxury car buyers where looks really matter.
As with any speculative growth stock, opinions abound. So, let’s dive in. Here’s what some readers had to say about MVIS stocks.
The long view
âI hope you are doing well. I wanted to give you some feedback on your recent MVIS coverage.
About your interview with Sumit Sharma, I found it excellent. Good questions, well prepared and well presented. Thanks for that. However, your follow-up article ‘Microvision Q3 results show that MVIS stock is dead moneyâ¦ for nowunfortunately missed the mark.
The observation that the call for Q3 earnings was “more of a death soliloquy than the lidar victory” had no basis. Rather, Sharma’s statement was âOEMs tell us our sensorâ¦ has the best benefits in terms of cost, size, key features, and demonstrable scalability for production and quality requirements.
Use of picking Reddit posts as a way to gauge investor sentiment is feeling lazy. Anonymous posters on a heavily shorted stock bulletin board can have any agenda rather than being real examples of investor sentiment.
The statement ‘Even for long-term investors, it’s a long wait [Q4 2022]’seemed a contradiction in itself. Are there many long-term investors with a time horizon of less than a year?
The reality of the situation is that MVIS has the right technology and product for a massive automotive lidar market and is aggressively pushing its hardware advantage by developing integrated lidar software algorithms that will reside in its silicon. Your article did not contain any reference to MVIS’s embedded software plans, although Sharma repeatedly emphasized its importance:
Hope this feedback will help you in your business analysis for future articles.
Too too soon
Here is my response to that feedback:
Thank you very much for your detailed comments and comments. The bottom line for me is this: While I don’t think Microvision’s OEM strategy (direct to automakers) is impossible, I think it will be difficult given the vertical integration of the auto industry. While you are right, a year of waiting may not be too long for long term investors, I very strongly believe that the wait built into the stock was for some big income (or an announcement) more early.
Reddit’s posts are of course not meant to capture all investor sentiment, but they very effectively summed up what I saw as growing impatience and the desire for demonstrable evidence of lidar traction.
As for the checkered performance of the stock, your observation is indeed correct: the MVIS stock has rebounded well after a sell-off of around 20% after profits. It is a perfect indicator of long-term investor support. My take on the stock, however, remains unchanged. I still think Microvision has as good a chance as anyone in lidar space. And, to be clear, the company appears to have key technical advantages in its software and form factor. However, I don’t see much of a fundamental catalyst to drive stocks higher in the near term. It needs patience.
I will continue to follow this space closely and appreciate your support and valuable comments.
âWill you personally buy a car with such superstructures on the roof (see photo of Volvo equipped with Luminar)? My girlfriend never. And especially women pay attention – not always, but often – to the appearance of a car. Can you imagine a Mercedes, a BMW or a Volkswagen with such roofs? Same Toyota (NYSE:MT) will probably have a hard time with that. One could imagine – if there was no alternative. It’s just that almost all of Luminar’s competitors come up with smaller systems that can be seamlessly integrated into existing and appropriate designs, or at least barely stand out.
If you now declare in [your] article on Microvision that Luminar has Volvo (OTCMKTS:VLVLY) as a partner, the issue becomes even more pressing. Because the new electric model will probably cost around $ 100,000. The higher the price, the higher the standards of appearance / design and workmanship. But who will spend $ 100,000 on a car (there’s a nice Mercedes or a Porsche for that too) that looks more like a taxi and isn’t pretty?
The obvious is often overlooked. Therefore, I really can’t imagine automakers putting Luminar lidar systems on their car roofs when they have comparable or better solutions that can be integrated much smaller and invisible, thus making for nicer cars.
If you also indicate that Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) cars have been seen with Luminar lidar systems, this ignores the fact that Tesla is doing everything to have the lowest drag coefficient of any vendor. It seems to me impossible to achieve comparable drag coefficient values ââwith such roof structures as without them. Higher drag coefficient values âânecessarily mean lower range, and range is the deciding criterion for electric car buyers, at least in Europe.
With smartphones, appearance is often the deciding factor. The same goes for cars.
Luminar: In the Catbird seat?
Here is my response to that feedback:
Thank you for pointing out the important form factor difference between lidar vendors. And I agree, size matters when it comes to lidar. Critics say Luminar also can’t reduce the size of its lidar system much due to its internal mechanical design.
Sumit Sharma, CEO of Microvision, reminded investors that many competitors have a VHS recorder-sized lidar system, while Microvision’s lidar system is only equivalent to that of a VHS tape. Additionally, many engineers have noted that Microvision’s lidar can be made even smaller thanks to ASICs.
For its part, Luminar hired a design company to explore the creation of new car roofs which better integrate their lidar âboxâ. My opinion is that roof mounted systems will be seen as unsightly and the form factor should drop significantly. Time will tell us.
Your comments and reactions are always welcome. Let’s continue the discussion. Email me at [email protected]
At the time of publication, Joanna Makris had (directly or indirectly) no position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publication guidelines.
Joanna Makris is a Market Analyst at InvestorPlace.com. Strategic thinker and fundamental investor in public equities, Joanna draws on over 20 years of Wall Street experience spanning various segments of the tech, media and telecommunications industries at several global investment banks including Mizuho Securities and Canaccord Genuity.
Click here to follow his Behind the Wall series, where she provides the inside scoop on the hottest technologies and trends from today’s business leaders, industry experts and fund managers.
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